2024 Breeders’ Cup: Expert picks, field breakdowns for Friday’s races - The Athletic

Day 1 of the Breeders’ Cup is Future Stars Friday, devoted to the juveniles. All five races are for 2-year-old horses, running on turf and dirt at distances from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

Most of these runners are lightly-raced. In the Northern Hemisphere, horses start running at the earliest in the spring of their 2-year-old year, with many others not debuting until later in the year. They’re the equivalent of young teenagers, talented and athletic but still maturing.

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European-based horses flock here for the turf races, and they often outperform their U.S.-based counterparts, in part because grass is the dominant surface in Britain, Ireland and France, so they’ve got generations of turf pedigree behind them.

In handicapping these races, I look at pedigree, stamina and distance experience.

Breeders’ Cup coverage starts at 4 p.m. ET on USA (streaming on Fubo).

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Post time: 5:45 p.m. ET

Purse: $1 million

Distance: 5 furlongs

The Juvenile Turf Sprint has been around only since 2018, and there’s not a ton of variety in the short list of winners. European-bred horses (two of them based in Europe) have won three of the six editions; trainer Wesley Ward has won three; and two trainers named Appleby (Mick and Charlie) have won one apiece.

Mick Appleby won the race last year with Big Evs for owner RP Racing, with jockey Tom Marquand in the saddle. Appleby is back this year with No. 3 Big Mojo (4-1) for the same owner with the same jockey, this time the second choice on the morning line (Big Evs was favored last year). He’s won just once in four starts, but they all came in stakes races, three of them graded, and he did finish second in two of them. Seems foolhardy to overlook him.

Favored No. 8 Ecoro Sieg (7-2) will be the first of the many Japanese-based runners to take to the Del Mar course this weekend. He’s bred for the dirt on both sides of his pedigree, and he has won both of his races (both on dirt) by comfortable margins. I might look elsewhere if his price drops significantly, but again, he’s logical, and 7-2 is a decent price.

Among the U.S.-based horses, No. 10 Governor Sam (12-1) has done pretty much nothing wrong in his five lifetime races. He broke his maiden by 2 1/4 lengths at Saratoga this summer, and he comes to Del Mar with a four-race win streak, all in stakes races. He hasn’t yet faced this level of competition, but he can win on the lead or stalking the pace, and he’s won four of five attempts at the distance. Oh, and if you’re a Houston Astros fan, this horse is owned in part by Bregman Family Racing, the partnership founded by third baseman Alex Bregman.

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Post time: 6:25 p.m. ET

Purse: $2 million

Distance: 1 1/16 miles

No. 3 Immersive (3-1) comes to this race with two Grade 1 wins to her credit, one of them at this race distance. She’s beautifully bred — her sire a Kentucky Derby winner, her damsire a Preakness and Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up — and she’s won all three of her races by comfortable margins. Immersive is impressive.

So is No. 10 Scottish Lassie (5-2), the only other runner here with a Grade 1 win on her résumé. She won the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes in early October by nine lengths, easily stretching out to a mile in that race from her first race at seven furlongs. Her damsire Bodemeister combined freakish speed with stamina, while her sire McKinzie was a multiple graded-stakes winner at route distances.

At a bigger price, No. 5 Quickick (10-1) finished second behind Immersive in the Grade 1 Alcibiades on Oct. 4, and while she’s been beaten by several of her rivals here, she does have experience at the distance and may be in the mix when they hit the wire.

Post time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Purse: $1 million

Distance: 1 mile

Breeders’ Cup turf races are not uncommonly dominated by horses who have raced primarily in Europe, where grass is the main surface and dirt racing virtually unknown, but this race is an exception. All but three of its editions have been won by horses based in the U.S.

That said, No. 1 Lake Victoria (8-5) is a deserving favorite about whom a handicapper friend of mine said, “The race is all about her. Might be the best horse running all weekend.”

True, she’s undefeated in four races. True, she’s a two-time Group 1 winner. True, she has powerhouse trainer Aidan O’Brien. True, she’s regally bred. Still, she’s never run beyond seven furlongs, and there is that racing maxim that you never bet horses who are favored doing something they’ve never done before.

No. 4 Scythian (12-1) has two wins at this distance, including most recently the Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes. Trainer Bill Mott is among the most respected in the game, and he doesn’t run horses just to take a shot. If she’s here, Mott thinks she’s ready. Her only loss came running on dirt, and she was second in that race. She’s bred for distance — sire Tiz the Law won the 2020 Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes; damsire Empire Maker won the Belmont and finished second in the Kentucky Derby. I like her, especially at a price.

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Longshot No. 3 Correto (30-1) is trained by Graham Motion, and I’ve cashed several tickets on his runners at huge prices, including Shared Account in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. She faltered stretching out from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles last out, and the cutback here to a mile may suit her, though turf routes are solidly in her wheelhouse based on pedigree. Can she win? I don’t know, but I won’t leave her off my tickets.

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What to know about Breeders’ Cup 2024: Start time, favorites, post positions and more

Post time: 7:45 p.m. ET

Purse: $2 million

Distance: 1 1/16 miles

No. 4 Ferocious (6-1) dazzled in his debut at Saratoga, winning by 7 3/4 lengths and being tabbed as the next big thing. He was second in two Grade 1 races to follow that up, beaten in each by horses he’ll face here again. The colt sold for $1.3 million at auction earlier this year and is owned by some of the same people who owned Mage, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner. Both horses also come from trainer Gustavo Delgado’s barn. There’s not a lot in his pedigree that screams “distance,” and that, coupled with his performance in his last two races at increasing distances, gives me pause.

No. 5 Jonathan’s Way (9-2) has won both of his races by comfortable margins and had no trouble stretching out to a mile in his most recent race after starting his career at six furlongs. His versatile running style gives jockey Joel Rosario options, but he’s another that doesn’t have a ton of stamina/route blood in his pedigree. First-crop sire Vekoma is off to a sizzling start this year, and this dark bay/brown colt might be worth a look.

I tend to be averse to favorites, but it’s hard to ignore No. 10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1). A perfect 3-for-3, he’s done everything asked of him, easily handling increased distance. There’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree, and in his last race, the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, his outside position gave him no trouble at all.

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Shipping in from Japan is No. 8 Shin Believe (10-1). He has raced only once, but it was at a 1 1/8 miles, and he won easily. His sire pedigree is all stamina, and his Japanese connections paid $800,000 for him. So … maybe?

Post time: 8:25 p.m. ET

Purse: $1 million

Distance: 1 mile

This race has been dominated by horses shipping to run from Europe, and the continental contingent is out in force again this year.

Few of the runners here have experience at this distance. One that does is No. 11 New Century, the morning-line favorite at 5-2 who has won twice at a mile, including once at Woodbine in Toronto in September. His sire’s sire, Kitten’s Joy, was a U.S. turf monster. In five starts, New Century has finished worse than second only once.

Remember Fierceness, the huge buzz horse both last year and early this year? He won this race last year, went off the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and finished 15th. He’s second choice on the morning-line in this year’s Classic. His 2-year-old full brother is a longshot option here: No. 10 Mentee (15-1). Trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Repole are a team hardly known for their turf runners, but after Mentee finished sixth in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, they switched this guy to the grass and got a multi-length win in the Grade 2 Futurity. The trio of Pletcher, Repole and jockey John Velazquez is not one to take lightly, but there’s also a lot to play against here.

No. 5 Zulu Kingdom (8-1) boasts world-class connections in trainer Chad Brown and jockey Flavien Prat, and his owners don’t mess around when it comes to buying and running horses. They’re willing to spend money to win races on the sport’s biggest days, and this Irish-bred has started his career with three straight wins. He’s had to work for those wins in his last two, both at 1 1/16 miles, and the cutback to a mile might make his job a little easier.

(Photo of Shin Believe: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)

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Teresa Genaro is a contributor to The Athletic's horse racing coverage. A veteran turf writer, she has published work in The New York Times, The Guardian, Bloodhorse magazine, The Racing Biz, and New York Breeder and was featured in the PBS documentaries The Track at Saratoga: America's Grandest Race Course and Old Bones: The Story of Exterminator. She co-hosted a web series for The Racing Biz on diversity and equity in the horse racing industry. A native of Saratoga Springs, she teaches high school English in Brooklyn.